Prediction: “Carmageddon” Won’t Happen

Freeway Empty (Carma-Heaven)

Freeway Empty (Carma-Heaven)

You’ve heard the hype that California’s Los Angeles Freeway 405 closing will cause “Carmageddon” – gigantic gridlock this weekend.

What’s wrong with this prediction?

1. Predictor of Distaster Can’t Lose:
If gigantic gridlock occurs – they were clever.
If no gridlock occurs – their efforts to get people to do alternate transportation worked.

Thats extremely misleading because I predict – traffic will decline !

(on the neighboring roads)

2. Over and over again when freeways are closed – traffic declines !!!

Yes this sounds Counter-intuitive – but its a real phenomena.

Take a quick look at this article:
“Remove It and They Will Disappear”

“San Francisco’s Embarcadero Freeway, toppled in the ’89 earthquake, and the city’s Central Freeway, torn down in 1995, were predicted to cause gridlock, but didn’t. When New York City’s Westside Highway collapsed in 1973, 53 percent of trips disappeared. And when citizens in Portland, Oregon replaced their Harbor Drive freeway with a waterfront park there was no traffic chaos. “

Surprise ?
Update Saturday Morning (July 16, 2011)  — Traffic is fine so far – just as predicted here.

The work is progressing, traffic is cooperating and it’s moving freely this morning,”

Carmaggedon? More like carmaheaven. No traffic in L.A.,” tweeted Chip Dorsh, who said he breezed through a canyon road to get from his job in Culver City to the San Fernando Valley.

(Quotes credit: Associated Press)

Perhaps its valuable for some to review the lesson “You Can’t Pave Your Way Out of Congestion !

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